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Posted by :
Guest
Couple of triggers coming this way:
1 -Acquisition done. Expect announcement soon.
2 - Oracle has won a 100 million $ project for an Int`l Bank - cud be huge as it might cover the bank`s global biz too. Huge earning potential.
3 - Enam upgrade to 3100
4 - Strong results expected.
5 - Delisting in another 2 qtrs above Rs 3,500.
Enjoy the ride !
Conficus...
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Posted by : Guest
Dear Seriouspro,
price target of 3,500 to 4,000 is real as the pricing driven by fundamentals is Rs, 3,169 as per latest analyst reports.
see the extract of the report below.
Oracle Financials (OFSSL) is the most successful Indian IT product play. We believe that OFSSL offers a favorable risk-reward ratio owing to 1) super-normal earnings growth 2) high cash flow generation from matured products biz and 3) Oracle lineage. The company deserves a higher P/E than services companies based on likely USD 1 bn sales by FY12E, NPM of more than 25% & more than USD 850 mn cash (end-FY12).
Products: At a cusp, market size to explode
Core Banking Solutions (CBS) market was USD 25-40 bn in CY07 (less than 20% outsourced so far). This key biz unit for OFSSL would see higher penetration as Europe/US banks replace their current CBS with packaged products over next 3-7 years. OFSSL is poised to leverage:
1) Mature product portfolio backed by a well-defined roadmap, scaleable architecture, domain expertise, multi-delivery capabilities and ease in integration.
2) Oracle parentage is a blessing as it provides “boardroom” access to global banks, technology leadership, well-nurtured eco-system (ERP, HR, CRM, Database etc) and higher longevity, notwithstanding global branding and visibility. Products of both entities are complementary & offer competitive advantage.
3) Signs of rich earnings quality visible: (1) Europe revenue scaled up to Rs 8 bn in FY09 (FY05: Rs 1.6 bn; CQGR: 10.5% QoQ). (2) Avg. FY09 quarterly licence fees stood at ~ USD 21 mn (FY05: USD 13 mn).
4) OFSSL can target acquisitions in the US with more than USD 850 mn cash by end-FY12E.
5) Sensitivity analysis: For a 100% upside, 25/28% NPM and 18-25x FY12E P/E, required license fees are ~USD 110-220 mn (FY10E: USD 93 mn). Few Tier 1 bank signings would ensure this milestone.
OFSSL deserves a P/E more than services biz due to: (1) Better earnings quality + strong operating leverage (greater than 50% GPM; greater than 26% OPM), (2) increasing base of predictable annuity revenues (AMCs) (3) Non-linear business model (4) Lower capex, high cash flow generation. We initiate coverage with a target price of Rs 3,169 (+70%) at 23x FY11E P/E. Our FY10E and FY11E EPS stands at ~Rs 110 and ~Rs 138 respectively. Key Risks include delay in replacement of CBS and delisting by Oracle.
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Posted by :
seriouspro
Now for some numbers:
bse plus nse volume - 8.29 Lacs
F&O volume - 7.5 Lacs
The volume was twice of the day before when price jumped 99 Rs.
Avg. volume is NSE _ 72000 shares. This is 10 times the avg.volume.
volume pattern last 5 days on NSE:
44K (-62Rs.), 50K (+28 rs), 188K(+56 rs), 322K (+100), 629K (+133)
Clearly this is a trend of KNOWN INSIDER NEWS buying.
FYI Oracle openworld starts next week....
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Posted by : seriouspro
C-rocket,
Your message is RIGHT ON FACTS but intentions behind company`s history, Oracle`s dealing and patriotic way of evaluating a business does not appeal to most audience these days, including me.
Your price expectation of 4500 is not for debate, as everyone has a different perceived value of the business. What matters is how much this business appeals to Oracle and at what price they know they have success. If I have a piece of diamond that someone wants then I can ask the price of a diamond. But most people who own this stock today have their portfolio beaten up by US financial turmoil and want to see something in their portfolio show positive gain. These days 25% gain is considered awesome. I think most people will be happy with 25% premium on Oracle`s last offer price of 2100 even though iflex business has grown exponentially since then. I like to see a price of 2800 for the offer and beyond that Larry would pretend to walk away.
...
Ahoy!!!!! I - Flex above 2100!!!!!!!
Posted by :
rvbh
Good to know that.But what was Crocket`s prophecy.?. I might as well get to know
that as well.Thx...
sell before bad news hits u
Posted by : GuestSell with downward price target of 1700.......
Ahoy!!!!! I - Flex above 2100!!!!!!!
Posted by : GuestSo guys I need some help and advise. Should I sell now or hold? I don`t want to wait till it drops to 400 again. What is the significant business news?...
Ahoy!!!!! I - Flex above 2100!!!!!!!
Posted by :
Teekays
Looks like Crocket`s prophesy might come true!!! Let us hope a breakout above 2600 life high happens!! Larry shud give us 5K per share and let him run the company the way he wants!!
Cheerz...
Big jump today
Posted by : R NANDAOr it is insider`s news to market abt delisting @ Rs 2200 !!...
Big jump today
Posted by : seriousproI believe this jump is not Q3 related. Significant business news....
Big jump today
Posted by : Guestexplain yourself further on all three subjects in more detail please, Q2 results?, FY estimates 9-10, 10-11? and price discovery for delisting?...
Big jump today
Posted by : GuestWhere did you get the 2Q results from? And can you post a reference to the price discovery discussion. It should be interesting....
Big jump today
Posted by : Guestyes a combination of strong 2Q results, solid increase in FY estimates for 09-10 & 10-11 and talk about price discovery for delisting ...
Big jump today
Posted by : GuestThe stock suddenly moved above 1900 today, any specific reasons or it is just expectations building around solid Q2 results from IT companies....
