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  Reliance   (Stocks)  
LIKELY ORDER OF SUPREME COURT - THE GOVT DETERMINED GAS PRICE WILL BE STRUCK DOWN
sumit22gupta -

We have communicated in the past occassionally however you are not that regular with your comments.

I agree investments in the stock markets are serious business and arguments on several points are revealing. If there were no arguments I would have continued buying RIL at Rs 2300 (although I am not selling I am diversifying my portfolio).

According to a possible corrupt DGH and GOI the gas reserves are for 13 years. For sake of PSC they may have been taken as such as a thumb rule. They may last 100 years. Oil should have already run out of the Earth by past predictions and we are nowhere near to an end. Now here we may give some consideration to RIL. The orignial REL Dadri project has been delayed and if we expect this project to come up latest in the next 2-3 years and that too capable of consuming 28 mmscmd. HHC already commented upon this by stating that FORCE MAJEURE takes care if RIL runs out of gas in KG D6.

RIL went in for crude as well as gas however it was determined that gas was a greater find. Here I do feel that RIL is playing with crude and gas production to time a future when gas and crude prices rise. RIL is already secured for a price of US$ 4.2 for next 5 years barring RNRL and NTPC until the decision is arrived at.

Because of the above RIL is not a significant crude play as yet. There is over cpacity in refining and the GRMs seem to have bottomed out. Please do note that nobody timed the global recession and its affects on commodities and no one is able to tell with any certainty that the world is getting out of the recession. So the cost reductions measure of merger and the stake sale which makes RIL ripe for acquiring distress companies and otherwise further reducing costs should start having a positive effect from Q3. It may not be too much but there has to be some improvement unless global markets collapse further.

Yes I am now lokking longterm for at least next 12 months to see if I get the opportunity to reduce my holding in RIL. I feel a forward 4 quarter PE of 15 is quite reasoanble in INTERNATIONAL markets if not for DOMESTIC players. So I cannot time the bottom either.

There is no ratification of the agreement. The `suitable arrangement` has yet to be drawn since Anil says that the GSMA is NO agreement. Mukesh may fear that Kokilaben will take an emotional and not a business like view. If HHC order is upheld then CLB will insert the clauses which may be further disputed. So whether HSC can takeover that function and bring this matter to finality. There are certain points that US$ 2,34 did not take into account and there were indeed some erronous assumptions between BOTH brothers. Now I hope Anil can tell us how US$ 2.34 can be profitable so that you and me can rationalise on that.

The RIL case is different than otheres that have been cited. Here the CMD himself is saying that he is responsible in personal capacity and the MOU is not binding on RIL. So I have stated that if gas cannot be supplied than Anil should agree to US$ 4.2 and get compensated from Mukesh by some good enough amount after mitigating the illegality of teh MOU in this context, taxation and profit of GOI so I came to a figure of US$ 1 per mmscmd or Rs 10,000 - Rs 15,000 crores cash upfront. Please put your figures with proper perspective and calculations for this MMB to arrive at a consensus.

More later on as I may overshoot the limit!
  
Posted By     bhusbhac

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