Sanjay Sakhuja, CEO, Ambit Corporate Finance
It was interesting to listen to the pre-budget views on the popular television channels this morning. Bulls and bears alike, all were optimistic about the likely impact of the budget, predicting a move up of 500-1,000 points on the Sensex. And indeed, north is the direction the markets took for the first few minutes of the Honourable Finance Minister's speech. Only to be followed by a significant correction as the speech progressed. Clearly, the markets, having ended the day down some 800-odd Sensex points, have given a 'Thumbs Down' to the budget.
If you ask me, I don't the think the budget is all that disappointing. Yes, I would have preferred the FM to stick to a budget deficit of closer to 6% of GDP, rather than edging, as he has, closer to 7%. But then, it can't be easy planning for an economy like India's in the midst of the global mayhem that we have witnessed in the past few quarters. The need to continue stimulating growth, and not be too focused on balancing the books, is an indulgence I can grant the FM in the current environment. I am glad that he has recognised the need to bring down deficits in the foreseeable future. And finally, I do hope that he is able to stick to the target of 6.8% that he has set for the economy for this year.
I would have loved the budget to be accompanied by large scale reforms. I was quite looking forward to an announcement of greater FDI in insurance (and maybe even in banking), of pension reforms, of oil price decontrol, of a definitive disinvestment plan, of an abolition of STT, etc. These, we did not get, at least to the extent of articulation we would have wanted. There is a mention of disinvestment and a suggestion of oil price decontrol, but we will have to wait it out to know what the precise plans of the government in this regard are.
I was however, pleased that the FM finally abolished fringe benefit tax (FBT). And that goods and services tax (GST) is now scheduled for implementation in April 2010. I welcome the proposed New Tax Code, and I also welcome the removal of surcharge from personal income taxes. That minimum alternative tax (MAT) has been increased from 10% to 15%, is not unacceptable.
And finally, in terms of overall direction, the FM has continued the focus on infrastructure development, with some important initiatives in the public private partnership space. The ongoing efforts to improve the status of farmers and the empowerment of weaker sections of society is welcome.
In summary, I believe the FM has done a good job of presenting a realistic budget in a difficult macro-economic environment. I am confident that it will be accompanied by appropriate doses of reforms in the areas listed above, in the normal course of governance rather than as part of an annual budgeting exercise.