Budget Reactions : Markets
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Shikha Sharma , MD and CEO , ICICI Prudential

With a 5-year tax holiday for hospitals, the private sector will have a strong incentive to invest in the healthcare provider space, particularly in terms of higher hospital capacity in the country. The new tax exemption on premium paid for medical insurance of parents to the tune of Rs15,000 p.a. will provide a further boost to health insurance penetration in the country. These significant initiatives in the healthcare space should ensure a stronger healthcare system in the country. The cornerstone of India’s success as a knowledge economy has been a significant base of educated population. The government’s thrust in this regard with higher allocations for both greater capacities as well as improving quality of education is a big positive for the long-term robustness of the services industry. Inflation is one of the biggest risks to growth and hence, inflation management is a key concern for policy-makers. The government’s decision to broadly maintain stability in indirect tax policies, with minimal changes essentially to address cost push inflation, is laudable. At the same time, the minister has also attempted to tackle the demand side by increasing the limits of income tax exemption. More money in the hands of the consumer along with stable prices clearly augurs well for the growth of the economy. In spite of the considerable investments planned, Finance Minister has been able to achieve the objective of maintaining overall fiscal discipline with fiscal deficit targeted at 2.5% of GDP for the coming year. Although, this may be slightly tough to maintain, the intention is certainly commendable. Overall, the Union Budget 2008-09 was a ‘no surprise’ Budget, which is what a Budget should be.

Rating : Not Rated

Anoop Bhaskar , Head Equity , UTI MF

Union Budget this year is largely neutral from equity market point of view. The direction of the market, however, is largely going to be guided by global cues. The Union Budget, in our view, tried to achieve a balance between the objectives of control of inflation and maintaining growth in the economy. This Budget also pencils the intentions of the government regarding the forthcoming general election. The key thrust areas of investment are agriculture, irrigation, and education which are medium to long-term positive for sustaining economic growth of 8%. We find the government's emphasis on agriculture sector and the loan waiver schemes is designed to address needs of large segment of agri-based community and common populace (read aam admi). On the negative side, the lack of any economic reforms, lack of initiatives in infrastructure segment, barring expression of intention for 5 further Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPP) have come as major disappointment. There is a fierce debate on the issue of debt waiver/debt relief schemes announced for marginal and small farmers. Including this waiver and one time settlement schemes of other farmers, the total waiver is Rs 60,000 crores (Rs 50,000 crores + Rs 10,000 crores). Based on the interaction with the PSU Bank's management it is expected that the government will make budgetary provision to enable banks waive-off the outstanding amounts. However, post budget, the FM has mentioned a lack of budgetary provision for this populist move, which could expand fiscal deficit to GDP ratio by 1%. The increase in personal income tax slab will save Rs 44,000 – 47,000 as income tax in the hands of the assessee based on their gender (for taxable income upto Rs.5 lakhs). This could spur personal consumption, as the disposable income will increase. There is no change in corporate tax and surcharge. However, the cascading effect of Dividend Distribution Tax from subsidiaries to parent companies has been removed by allowing an offset mechanism. That should help many large corporate as operating subsidiaries are going to be more tax efficient from dividend distribution point of view. The infrastructure companies will also benefit from this measure as it clarifies tax status of dividend distribution from SPVs to parent holding company. The measures that have come as a disappointment for the market are 1. Increase in short term capital gains tax from 10% earlier to 15%, and 2. Change of tax status of STT from set-off to income tax to income tax deductible expense item. While the first factor is overall negative for short-term investors that provide liquidity to market, the second factor is expected to impact the arbitrager's post-tax income. In general the budget has reduced excise duty on various classes of consumer goods, such as, autos, pharmaceuticals that should propel consumer demand and help ease the effect of inflation.

Rating : Not Rated

Anoop Bhaskar , Head-( Equity) , UTI Mutual Fund

Union Budget this year is largely neutral from equity market point of view. The direction of the market, however, is largely going to be guided by global cues. The Union Budget, in our view, tried to achieve a balance between the objectives of control of inflation and maintaining growth in the economy. This Budget also pencils the intentions of the government regarding the forthcoming general election. The key thrust areas of investment are agriculture, irrigation, and education which are medium to long-term positive for sustaining economic growth of 8%. We find the government's emphasis on agriculture sector and the loan waiver schemes is designed to address needs of large segment of agri-based community and common populace (read aam admi). On the negative side, the lack of any economic reforms, lack of initiatives in infrastructure segment, barring expression of intention for 5 further Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPP) have come as major disappointment. There is a fierce debate on the issue of debt waiver/debt relief schemes announced for marginal and small farmers. Including this waiver and one time settlement schemes of other farmers, the total waiver is Rs 60,000 crores (Rs 50,000 crores+Rs 10,000 crores). Based on the interaction with the PSU Bank's management it is expected that the government will make budgetary provision to enable banks waive-off the outstanding amounts. However, post budget, the FM has mentioned a lack of budgetary provision for this populist move, which could expand fiscal deficit to gdp ratio by 1%. The increase in personal income tax slab will save Rs 44,000 – 47,000 as income tax in the hands of the assessee based on their gender (for taxable income upto Rs.5 lakhs). This could spur personal consumption, as the disposable income will increase. There is no change in corporate tax and surcharge. However, the cascading effect of Dividend Distribution Tax from subsidiaries to parent companies has been removed by allowing an offset mechanism. That should help many large corporate as operating subsidiaries are going to be more tax efficient from dividend distribution point of view. The infrastructure companies will also benefit from this measure as it clarifies tax status of dividend distribution from SPVs to parent holding company. The measures that have come as a disappointment for the market are 1. Increase in short term capital gains tax from 10% earlier to 15%, and 2. Change of tax status of STT from set-off to income tax to income tax deductible expense item. While the first factor is overall negative for short-term investors that provide liquidity to market, the second factor is expected to impact the arbitrager's post-tax income. In general the budget has reduced excise duty on various classes of consumer goods, such as, autos, pharmaceuticals that should propel consumer demand and help ease the effect of inflation.

Rating : Not Rated

SV Prasad , Schroders

The Finance Minister in his speech mentioned about moderating capital flows. You have a scenario where short-term capital gains tax was increased from 10 to 15%. I would read the fine print with lot of caution. I am a bit disappointed by the step taken to remove the banking transaction tax. FBT and banking transaction tax were introduced together. So, I was expecting some kind of a back door waver for FBT, by saying that people who are looking to pay higher surcharge may not follow FBT. There was a lot of lobbying being done on that. During a time when there is a concern about a lot of dark clouds looming in the markets, my concern is whether there was a need to increase short-term capital gain tax from 10-15% and tinker with STT. In this kind of a market, the global scene is not looking too good. Waving off loans is a big thing. It is usually a populistic thing that is going to benefit them in terms of votes. Tinkering with STT upsets the complete mood in the market. I would have frankly expected submission, in terms of allowing people to invest outside India. Now this is something that’s been hanging in there, they have increased limits from USD 25,000 right up to USD 200,000 dollars but on an operational level nothing has really moved. I hope either in the fine print or by way of some RBI policy, I hope that some measures are announced on that front that’s my take. I don’t think we can wish away the Budget come Monday that’s my view as far as this Budget is concerned.

Rating : Not Rated

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