The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is now 23 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA). On comparing the seasonal rainfall, it can be said as the most deficient year after 1972 (24 per cent below LPA) affecting 299 districts under drought. Parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka faced the fury of floods due to the impact of climate change. With the start of monsoon season in June, the situation looked grim with cumulative deficiency of 39 per cent below LPA, with no rains it worsened to 54 per cent below LPA as on 24 June 2009, creating a drought like condition and panic in the country. 


But rains catching up late during August and September, farmers had two choices: to sow Kharif crops that could withstand this change in weather. The late rains have also replenished the storage of water in several reservoirs in the country, and raised hopes for a better Rabi crop. As on 16 October 2009, 67 per cent of the live capacity is at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) in 81 reservoirs being monitored by Central Water Commission (CWC).

Kharif rice and sugarcane
Lower coverage of Kharif rice and sugarcane area remains a worry. Of course, our policy makers and analysts are thinking about possible policy options to cope up with this situation, including the possibility of imports. But, the extent of damage to the crops due to lower rainfall does not depend only on cumulative deficiency of rainfall but also on its spread across regions and its timing. It may be worth visiting the past experience of past droughts in this regard. In 1987, the decline in the production of Kharif foodgrains was about 9 per cent due to rainfall deficit of 19 per cent below the LPA. But similar rainfall deficit in 2002 (19 per cent below LPA), had a much larger impact on the Kharif foodgrains production, which declined by 22 per cent. However, during both the period of drought, consumers did not suffer much as there were ample stocks of foodgrains in the country.

Amost similar situation exists today. The government is banking on grain stock of more that 45 million tonnes as of October end. So, the problem of food security is not as much on the consumer front as on the production front. In the current year, maximum deficiency of monsoon is in northwest part of India, with cumulative rainfall at 36 per cent below the LPA. As being the most irrigated belt, this region did not suffer much in terms of production of Kharif crops. Improvement in rainfall after 13 August 2009 is expected to help in recovery of area loss under paddy in the States of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Orissa where paddy sowing continues during September and October. Mostly because delayed rains standing crops have been saved to a large extent and productivity loss is expected to be somewhat less in this region.

Knowing well that Kharif grains, especially paddy, is hit adversely, every effort needs to be made to recover in Rabi season so that country can still have ample grain to feed to its people.

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Efforts taken by the Government: The policymakers and government machinery have geared up for making arrangements for timely availability of seeds and targeting for completion of sowing by the end of November. They are also preparing for the seeds for the Kharif crop in 2010. Despite the Government’s efforts at this stage, imports of sugar to the tune of 5-7 million tons seem inevitable. Imports of grains may not be needed, given the current level of stocks, but if India faces another year of bad monsoon, the situation may be precarious.   

A wake-up call for policy makers!
- Our policy makers need to think of a strategy that can give the nation a better “drought proofing” of our agriculture. This can be done by urgently tapping groundwater resources through shallow tube wells in the eastern region so that pressure on Punjab-Haryana belt for common rice can be reduced.

- The NASA satellites have lately shown that north-west India has been experiencing a fall in its groundwater to the extent of 15 inches each year during 2002-08. Increased storage facility, both for grains as well as for water, would be another important policy lesson to be learnt. Increased storage capacity for grains would help in reduce wastage of stored grains. Modern bulk handling facilities, preferably under the private sector, coupled with warehouse receipt system, need to be encouraged with capital subsidy schemes (as in cold storages). Similar encouragement needs to be given for rural godowns that can be operated through panchayats or farmers grain companies.

- Weather-indexed insurance schemes need to be propagated at large scale so that peasantry can be extended a reasonable insurance cover.

- The Government also needs to invest in R&D to develop drought resistant seeds, invest in infrastructures via roads, invest in irrigation projects and streamline the public distribution system and National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), which would go a long way to help the poor in periods of such distress.