We expect to report an attractive bottomline in 2011-12 and emerge as
the most efficient and integrated sugarcane company in the country.
Mr. Gaurav Goel and Mr. Gautam Goel, Managing Directors, review
Dhampurs performance and prospects.
Q. How would you summarise Dhampurs performance in the financial year
2009-11?
A. For the Indian sugar industry, the financial year 2009-11 was one of
the most volatile. It wasnt just a question of cyclicality during the
course of the year under review; it was also about the speed of change
in operating fortunes. In this respect, the cyclical whiplash was
similar to the general economic meltdown that transpired in September
2008 – unprecedented for its speed and sharp decline.
What transpired between January and March 2010 in India was perhaps no
different: Sugar realisations crashed from a peak of Rs. 40 plus per kg
to a trough of Rs. 24 per kg, even as the industry was struggling to
address the variance in landed cane cost from Rs.162 per quintal in
sugar season 2008-09, to Rs. 263 per quintal in sugar season 2009-10
and to Rs. 218 per quintal in sugar season 2010-11.
Further, the financial year under review reflected an inverted ‘V –
sugar realisations stood at Rs. 29 per kg, peaked at Rs. 40 per kg,
bottomed to Rs. 24 per kg and finished the financial year at Rs. 28 per
kg.
Q. How did this volatility translate into Dhampurs performance for the
financial year 2009-11?
A. Our Companys turnover stood at Rs. 2,414 crore in 2009-11 (18
months) as against Rs. 975 crore in 2008-09 (12 months). This growth
resulted from a higher sugar sale contribution, including refined sugar
from imported raws and from the power and chemical businesses, further
leading to increased sales volumes and improved realisations.
Q. How did the other divisions perform?
A. We were satisfied with our power business performance, accounting
for 21% of the total revenue in 2009-11 (18 months) against its
contribution of 14% in 2008-09 (12 months). The improvement was a
result of higher cogeneration revenues, on account of better
realisations,
higher generation and improved power export. This division accounted
for 92% of Dhampurs EBIDTA in 2009-11 (18 months) which stood at 32%
in 2008-09 (12 months). The power business was a major factor in
reducing the cyclical impact on the Company.
It was a challenging year for our chemicals business (ethanol and
alcohol) owing to a higher cost of molasses and other raw materials,
coupled with lower realisations at the beginning of the financial year.
However, higher realisations in the later part of the year resulted in
marginal profits at the EBIDTA level.
Q. What were the highlights of the Companys performance in the
financial year 2009-11?
A. In the preceding paragraphs, we provided a perspective of the
challenges the industry faced during the financial year 2009-11. This
could have been worse, had it not been for some longstanding
initiatives aimed at capacity growth and product diversification.
Consider the following:
- The Company crushed 65.26 lac tonnes of sugarcane, against 25.47 lac
tonnes in 2008-09. Raw sugar imports processed, stood at 1.78 lac
tonnes, against 0.18 lac tonnes in 2008-09. This increased conversion
enhanced our asset utilisation. Additionally, the Company exported 0.31
lac tonnes of sugar under the Advance Licence Scheme, which served as a
cushion against a sharp decline in domestic realisations in early 2010.
These factors enabled the sugar division to report a lower loss than
equivalent companies during the period under review.
- The proportion of revenue from the non-sugar business stood at 27%
for the 18 month period ending March 2011, while it stood at 18% for
the 12 month period ending September 2009, vindicating investments in
downstream by-product utilisation. Power revenues stood at Rs. 665.05
crore for the 18 month period and Rs. 155.52 crore for the 12 month
period. The average per unit realisation stood at Rs. 4.37 in 2009-11
and Rs. 3.25 in 2008-09, facilitated by increased realisations under
the Open Access Policy announced by the U.P. State Government.
- The Company commenced the supply of ethanol to oil marketing
companies like Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corporation
Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd at a selling price of Rs.
27 per litre. Consequently, the percentage of chemical business
revenues in the Companys overall revenue mix was 6% in 2009-11 (18
months) and 4% in 2008-09 (12 months).
The big picture was that cogeneration and chemical revenues stood at
27% of Dhampurs total revenues for the 18 month period, against 18%
during the 12 month period ending September 2009, justifying the
investments we made to reduce our cyclical exposure.
Q. What were the challenges addressed by Dhampur during the period
under review?
A. Cane pricing continued to be our biggest challenge. Even though the
Central Government stipulated a Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) of
Rs. 129.84 and 139.12 per quintal in 2009-10 and 2010-11 respectively
and the actual price stood to Rs. 248 per quintal for the 18 month
period, which could not be covered by the realisations. This resulted
in a loss for the sugar division.
However, we were able to limit our downside, owing to effective
business integration – the end product of one business represented the
raw material for another. This integration made it possible for us to
set off the sugar division losses with the improved revenues of the
power division.
The outlook is optimistic: Sugar production is anticipated to increase
in 2011-12, following a higher cane output, coupled with increased
biomass generation for our power business and higher molasses for
ethanol production.
Q. What cost optimisation measures helped arrest divisional losses?
A. Our cost optimisation initiatives comprised:
- Processing 1.76 lac tonnes of raw sugar during the period under
review and running sugar operations during the off season, resulting in
superior absorption of fixed costs.
-Repayment of long-term debt worth Rs. 104.16 crore (net).
Q. How does the Company expect to capitalise on emerging opportunities?
A. Sugar: Sugar production is expected to rise to 24.5 million tonnes
on the back of improved cane acreage and higher yield in 2010-11;
international sugar prices touched a 30-year high owing to heavy
rainfall and cyclones in Australia, adverse climatic conditions in
Brazil, Thailand and China. These factors have created export
opportunities for India.
Power: India is a power-deficient country and Uttar Pradesh is one of
its worst-affected states, providing an opportunity for our power
division. We secured business viability by venturing into Power
Purchase Agreements (PPA) with the U.P. Government. With the projected
higher rate of sugarcane crushing, bagasse availability will improve
and the power division could run throughout the year. Purchase of a
certain minimum percentage of renewable energy by the states has been
made mandatory, which gives us an added opportunity.
Ethanol: The 5% (E5) ethanol blending program is part of the
Governments objective of reducing the countrys dependence on fossil
fuels and crude oil imports. The earlier ethanol blending program could
not take off in spite of E5 being made mandatory due owing to the
non-remunerative pricing of Rs. 21.50 per litre. However, the current
price of Rs. 27 effective from October 2010 provides an incentive to
revive the ethanol blending program.
Cane production and molasses availability are expected to increase,
resulting in higher ethanol production. With E10 (10% blending) on the
horizon, a shift in the sugar economy from a situation of shortage to
self-sufficiency will ensure adequate ethanol availability for blending
with petrol. Our focus will be to improve the production of chemicals
as well, while capitalising on the ethanol blending programme, thereby
strengthening realisations.
How does the Company expect to perform in 2011-12?
Going ahead, we will concentrate on increasing our capacities in the
power and chemical businesses to offset sugar business cyclicality,
helping us earn profits during sugar downturns. We expect a better
performance on account of higher sugar production and better average
realisations, which should help us emerge with a stronger balance
sheet.
Controls decide... Decontrol will...
- raw material (sugarcane)
costs that mills - even out the sugar cyclicality
must pay farmers
- end product (sugar)
realisations regulated
through - ensure remunerative cane prices
the monthly release mechanism
- size of production through
control of the quantity - lead to capacity consolidation
and economies of scale
of cane that a mill can crush
- sugar availability for the
domestic market through control - double ethanol production and
replace 3% of Indias
of exports and imports gasoline consumption
- which sugar mill a farmer
may sell his cane to - generate close to 8,000
MW of green power against
todays 900 MW
- make India a consistent sugar
exporter
What is the basis of this optimism?
Our optimism is well supported by various positive trends:
- Sugar industry decontrol is anticipated, which will be beneficial for
the industry in the long run as it will result in a larger quantum of
sugar being sold in the open market at relatively higher realisations.
- Higher cane production will result in adequate feedstock for the
cogeneration and ethanol businesses, countering sugar cyclicality.
- Indias growing appetite for automobiles will enhance fuel demand and
boost ethanol requirements.
- The current Power Purchase Agreements with the U.P. Government will
be in effect for a period of 20 years, providing a remunerative offtake
for this renewable power.
What message do you want to give your shareholders?
We will continue to focus on higher margins across all three divisions
– bottomline-accretive revenue from cogeneration, value-added
chemicals, especially ethanol, and higher sugar production. In doing
so, we expect to report an attractive bottomline in 2010-11 and emerge
as the most efficient integrated sugarcane products company in the
country.
*(The year 2008-09 refers to the 12 month period ending September 2009,
and 2009-11 refers to the 18 month period ending March, 2011)
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