Dear Shareholders,
The past year has been at best a mixture of random good news
consistently overshadowed by a host of disturbing news on the global
economic front. When normalcy was limping back in the markets of the
western hemisphere the threat of nations like Greece, Portugal and
Spain defaulting on their sovereign debt loomed large in triggering
another domino effect of economic downturn. Sailing amidst the choppy
waters of economic upheaval is not remotely easy. Back home, in India
we were witness to the trickling effects of the robust growth we saw in
the early years of the present century. We have just completed the
first decade of the twenty first century and it has been definitely a
formidable growth period. From a nation that has been a toddler in
reforms during the nineties to a nation that is robustly shaping up as
a global economic player at present, the journey to put it humbly has
just begun.
Amidst the cacophony of liberalisation, policy norms being rewritten,
business rules looked at, sectors being opened up for global players,
we have just completed the second decade of reforms. The learning
experience has been manifold compared to what we have witnessed in the
first decade. Kudos to the Indian economy where we have managed to not
only integrate with global best practices of running an economy but
have also simultaneously kept ourselves insulated enough to prevent
catastrophic consequences of unregulated reforms like those faced by
the extremely liberal western economies in the past two years. On
hindsight, our regulators have done a great job in walking the
tightrope of cautious reforming and growth. The most visible evidence
has been of the financial meltdown of the US and European markets that
have hardly had much effect on our domestic finance sector in the past
three years. Though I must add there has been a weakening of our
domestic stock markets in the same period given the dominant role of
international investors over these years.
The Indian agrarian sector in the past decade has witnessed a positive
change in terms of consumption where we see a purposeful increase in
consumption levels of food, clothes and services over these years. For
example, the telecom revolution has penetrated the last mile of the
most remote of villages. In addition, giant government projects like
the National Employment Guarantee Program are gradually playing a game
changer in terms of alternating the social and economic fabric of our
villages. In a similar manner, we all are also looking forward to the
food security bill, another first of its kind in the world that if
executed in a right manner would pave the way for a new rural India.
On the macro economic front, the domestic economy however had some
concerns in terms of growth and inflation. The high level of prices
would definitely throw open a new debate in terms of whether a growing
economy should settle and accept a high level of inflation. Moreover,
for the millions of poor this definitely is not an economic argument
they would be satisfied with. With jobs to cater and mouths to feed,
for a government it''s a twin edged sword of balancing between growth or
inflation. Besides, with a slow but sure global meltdown taking place
all economic policies should be skewed towards creation of domestic
demand rather than banking on foreign investments or international
markets.
In the present fiscal of 2011-12, India would miss its growth and other
fiscal deficit targets as has been accepted by the government. The
growth target has now been revised at around 7.5 percent levels from
the budgeted estimates of 9 percent. Despite India''s vulnerability to
global recession being limited, any recession in Europe may further
hamper domestic markets as well as production. With high rates of
borrowing existing with high prices, it is definitely a major hindrance
for industries across the Diaspora to keep up a momentum in terms of
revenues and earnings. The sugar industry also would have a direct
impact in terms of managing costs with rising interest rates.
For years we have strongly advocated the idea of complete decontrol of
the sugar industry that would enable not only a healthy environment of
productivity but also lead to a win-win situation for the sugarcane
farmers, the sugar consumers and the sugar producers. India is no
stranger to the benefits of complete decontrol in other sectors, and
the same would be replicated in the sugar industry as well.
Globally, there has been an upsurge in terms of sugar stock and present
trends are expected to persist even in the next year also. Given such
a scenario there is not much increase expected in the global prices of
sugar, a decisive shift from the extreme volatility witnessed a few
months ago. On the domestic front, a jump in sugar production from 19
million tonnes in 2009-10 to 24.5 million tonnes in 2010-11 has led to
easing of prices. Such a trend would remain for the next fiscal also in
terms of domestic production. Given the thorough regulation of the
sugar industry,
sugar producers with abundant stock and facing a weakening of domestic
prices are keenly looking forward for permission from the government
for allowing a sizeable volume of exports. This would help them in
taking advantage of the price differential and also generate better
margins due to a weakening of the rupee against the dollar. Once again
this brings to the fore a strong case for decontrol of sugar which if
existed would have benefited the sugar producers in leveraging and
distributing their revenue margins based on global and domestic price
dynamics, simultaneously fulfilling the need of the domestic market.
Being the leader in the sugar industry, for us it is not just a
position of numbers but an opportunity for fulfilling a responsibility
towards both the industry at large as well as our key partners, the
extensive farming community. Our firm intent in supporting reforms and
decontrol will remain of paramount importance. As a corporate citizen,
it has always been our endeavour to be a contributory partner to
India''s growth story. We will continue to strive to grow in a manner
that would effectively and convincingly reflect the true determination
and spirit of our large family of employees, shareholders and other
stakeholders including our millions of farmers who toil effortlessly to
produce the sugarcane that finally sweetens our taste buds. I proudly
look forward in sharing and participating in this process of India''s
march into the third decade of reforms.
Warm regards,
Shishir Bajaj
Chairman & Managing Director |