Monsoon's impact on agri output: How do experts read it?

Excerpts from India Tonight on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show »

Ajit Tyagi, director general of the Meteorological Department; MS Swaminathan, the father of green revolution (also the agricultural scientist chairman and founder of MSSRF) and Devindra Sharma, the food and agriculture expert, share their views on how poor the monsoon will be, what would it mean for agriculture and its growth, and what the government needs to do to protect farmers and their livelihoods.

Here is the edited transcript of their interview with CNBC-TV18's Karan Thapar. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: Let's start by trying to establish the facts of the monsoon's performance till now. Although the monsoon was more than sufficient in June, it has been markedly deficient in July. Taking June and July together, what is the overall shortfall for those two months.

Tyagi: Monsoon has been the way it was predicted. We predicted 95% rainfall for the entire season. For July, it is just 95%, 5% below normal.

Q: It's 5% below the long period average for the first two months. What will be the case over the next two months for August and September?

Tyagi: We have released our second stage forecast with the global and regional parameters available to us. The monsoon will be on a weaker side than expected. For these two months, rainfall would be 95%. For four months, we expect the rainfall to be between 93-95%.

Q: The August and September rainfall will also be deficient and would be around 90-95% to the low-pressure area (LPA) of August and September, is that right?

Tyagi: Exactly.

Q: Therefore, when we take the four months of monsoon together from June to September, your expectation will be between 93% and 95% of the LPA. In other words, it will be roughly between 5% and 7% deficient?

Tyagi: Right. This is one part of the forecast. The second important part of the forecast is the distribution. With this below normal rainfall, the distribution will be well distributed. This is a saving grace as far as distribution, both in space and time is concerned.

Q: In other words, we may have an overall deficiency at the end of four months as much as 7%, but because of distribution in terms of both space and time, it is favourable and won't feel like a deficient monsoon.

Tyagi: Exactly. These are the inputs that we are getting from the state and central agencies that rainfall will be fairly distributed.

Q: We probably will have an overall deficiency by the end of September or as much as 7%, but because of the favourable distribution in terms of space and time, it won't feel like a deficiency. What will be your prognostication for the impact on Indian agriculture during the kharif crop?

Swaminathan: It's not just the total rainfall, but the distribution of the rain. The increasing difficulty in effective prediction is becoming clear. Predictions are being made, but we have only 60% cultivated area under rain fit conditions. Both, the total rainfall and distribution will be very important here. There are a number of corrective steps being taken to minimise the damage and maximise the production of the rabi crops.

Q: Because of the favourable distribution both in terms of space and time, the Business Standard said that crop sowing is progressing very well. The Hindu also said that report suggests that the sowing of rice, sugarcane and oil seeds is greater compared to this time last year? Is that significant? Does that accord with your own estimation?

Sharma: If you look at paddy, the official figures say that the area roughly been sown by now is about 60% of what it was last year. As long as the distribution is concerned, there are conflicting positions there.

Q: Where you get these figures that sowing of paddy is only 60% of last year? The Hindu on Saturday said that the sowing of rice, sugarcane and oil seeds was greater than this time last year. They quoted figures given to them by the ministry of agriculture. Where do your markedly different figures come from?

Sharma: Two-three days back, Reuters said that the official estimate by July 22 is at 155 lakh hectares been sown by now. There is a deficit in the last two weeks to the tune of 22-23%.

Overall, the average may look nice, but there is a deficiency that we have seen in the last two weeks. For the next two weeks, Meteorological Department predicted that rainfall will be normal.

Q: You track the sowing month by month, week by week. What is your assessment of the sowing of those three critical crops - rice, sugarcane and oil seeds this year compared to last year? Do you go by the ministry of agriculture claim that the sowing this year is greater than last year?

Swaminathan: I normally go by the ministry of agriculture. If you want someone to give an incorrect figure, then they are the best source. They have a national reach of crop cutting experiments, watching and so on.

They are continuously in touch with Crop Weather Watch group in Krishi Bhavan and the state governments on teleconference basis. By and large, I tend to go by what the ministry of agriculture says. But, there are other estimates and ground truth that would come out only at the end of the season.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying videos.